TED | 一条活鲸鱼值多少钱？为什么经济体系该保护大自然？

这个庞然大物，就在我们旁边安详地进食。

Now you have to understand, at that point in time, I knew nothing about blue whales, or whales in general.

你得知道一点，在那个时刻，我对蓝鲸，或者说鲸鱼这整个物种都一窍不通。

I'm just a financial economist.

我只是个金融经济学家。

But I learned something from them, which was really incredible.

但是我从它们的身上学到了一些很神奇的东西。

It was already known in the science that whales capture so much carbon on their body and indirectly.

科学上已经表明鲸鱼会在它们的身体里或间接地捕获大量碳。

And that's, of course, very important for us because we are all facing the climate calamity.

这当然对我们来说非常重要，因为我们都面临着气候灾难。

And we are all talking about how to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

我们都在讨论如何从大气中捕获二氧化碳。

Well, it turns out that the whales grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

结果表明鲸鱼会从大气中抓取大量二氧化碳，

By the way, they eat and they poop.

通过进食和排泄这一过程。

Yeah.

没错。

It's all about food.

围绕着食物。

So how does the whale system work?

鲸鱼系统是什么样的？

Well, it starts in the oceans.

从海洋开始。

There's these microscopic organisms called phytoplankton.

海洋中有一些微生物，称为“浮游植物”。

Those phytoplankton do something really incredible.

这些浮游植物的作用非常神奇。

They grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

它们从大气中吸收二氧化碳，

And they return oxygen to all of us.

再以氧气的形式返还给我们。

Now how much carbon dioxide do they grab from the atmosphere?

那它们会从大气中吸收多少二氧化碳呢？

About 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

从大气中吸收大约370亿吨二氧化碳。

Truly the lungs of the planet are in the ocean.

地球之肺其实在海里。

Now, if you want to visualize what 37 gigatons mean, that's the equivalent of the carbon that is grabbed by four Amazon forests per year.

如果你想对370亿吨有点概念，这相当于四个亚马逊雨林每年吸收的碳量。

That's how much is being sucked in by these photosynthetic organisms.

这就是这些光合生物吸收的量。

Now larger creatures called krill love to eat phytoplankton directly or indirectly.

磷虾这种稍大一点的生物会直接或间接地吃掉浮游生物。

And the whales love to feed on the krill.

然后鲸鱼会吃掉磷虾。

They feed so much on the krill that they grow bigger and bigger.

它们吃掉了大量的磷虾，越长越大，

And they store carbon in their body.

碳就存储在了它们的身体里。

How much carbon do they store in their body?

它们的身体里有多少碳呢？

Roughly about seven to nine tons of carbon on their body.

它们的身体里大约有7到9吨碳。

If you want to convert that to carbon dioxide, that's about 33 tons of carbon dioxide being kept out of the atmosphere on the body of a single whale.

如果将其转换为二氧化碳，约等于从大气中抽取了33吨二氧化碳，存在一条鲸鱼体内。

If you want to visualize that, that's the work of 1,500 trees on the body of a single whale.

如果要类比一下，那就是1500棵树的劳动成果装在了一条鲸鱼的体内。

OK?

好吗？

But those guys, because they eat a lot, what do you do next?

但是这些家伙，由于它们吃得多，那会怎么样？

You poop a lot.

拉的也多。

And their poop turns out to be incredibly important because it fertilizes the phyto.

它们的粪便惊人地重要，因为滋养了浮游生物。

So you have this wonderful cycle.

于是就有了一个美妙的循环。

OK?

好的。

The whale feeds on the krill, the krill feeds on the phyto.

鲸鱼吃磷虾，磷虾吃浮游生物。

And the phyto eats the poop of the whales to get more active.

浮游生物吃鲸鱼的粪便增加活力。

And when the phyto gets more active, it grabs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

浮游生物越活跃，就会从大气吸收更多的二氧化碳。

So just imagine: the whales, they capture carbon on their body.

想象一下：鲸鱼用身体捕获碳。

Unfortunately, at some point they die.

不幸的是，某一天它们死了，

And they're so heavy they sink to the bottom of the ocean.

但是它们太重了，只能沉到海底。

And anything below a thousand meters is sequestered almost forever.

海底一千米以下的万物几乎被永久封存了。

And through their poop they also fertilize phyto, making phyto even more active, grabbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

它们的粪便依旧在滋养着浮游生物，让浮游生物越来越活跃，从大气中捕获更多的二氧化碳。

So in a sense, the whales are incredible allies in the fight against climate change.

某种意义上，鲸鱼是我们对抗气候变化的重要盟友。

Now that's good news, right?

这是个好消息，对吧？

Yeah.

是的。

Except that whales are dying.

除了一点，鲸鱼濒危了。

They're dying from ship strikes.

由于与船只相撞，它们濒危了。

They're dying from pollution.

由于污染、被渔网缠住，

They're dying from entanglements.

它们濒危了。

In fact, they're dying because our current economic system puts a zero value on a living whale.

实际上，它们濒危的原因是我们当前的经济系统完全不在意活鲸鱼的价值。

But chop a whale, sell it for its meat, it acquires a value.

但是切开鲸鱼，出售鲸肉，会产生价值。

The value of a living whale is zero, zero dollars, zero in any currency.

活鲸鱼的价值是零，零美元，任何货币单位都是零。

I'm a financial economist.

我是一名金融经济学家。

And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.

我听到了科学家们为鲸鱼的遭遇叹息。

And I wanted to help.

我想帮忙。

I didn't know how to help.

但是不知道怎么帮。

And I thought, wait a minute.

然后我想，等一下。

Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.

也许我可以把你们的信息传达给世界。

Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us in a language that we can all understand.

也许我可以把这些价值和鲸鱼为我们做的事翻译成我们都能理解的语言。

Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.

不幸的是，这是金钱的语言。

So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale but one service.

所以我带领着团队打算评估鲸鱼所做之事的价值，但是只评估那么一件事。

Because the whales do a whole host of things.

因为鲸鱼会做很多很多事。

But I just wanted to value one thing, which is what is the value of their carbon sequestration service to us?

但是我只想评估一件事，即鲸鱼的固碳行为对我们来说值多少钱？

Now how would you do something like that?

怎么评估呢？

After all, the whale is a living system.

鲸鱼毕竟是一个活物。

The whale captures carbon on her body.

鲸鱼把碳存在她的身体里，

And she gives birth to baby whales who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.

然后生了小鲸鱼，小鲸鱼长大了也会用身体捕获碳。

And they give birth to whales and so forth, and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.

然后不断繁衍生息，还会间接地通过滋养浮游生物的这一过程固碳。

So how would you do something like this?

怎么估值呢？

Well, to do that, I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.

要估值的话，我得发挥我的长项，也就是估价。

I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.

我看了看说，等一下。

This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.

它们就像是会分红的股票。

Except those dividends are live dividends.

但是分红是动态的，

They give birth to more dividends.

还会越滚越多。

So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime and keep track of all these dividends into the future,

如果我追踪一条鲸鱼的一生，记录下所有分红，直至终点，

and then multiply that by the price of carbon, and discount that all the way to the present, I can figure out what is the present value,

再乘以碳的价格，再将所有未来的分红折现至当下，就可以得出目前的价值，

discounted present value, of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.

一条鲸鱼一生创造的价值折现到现在的价值。

Would you like to know how much?

你们想知道是多少吗？

Would you like to know how much?

你们想知道是多少吗？

At least three million dollars.

至少三百万美元。

At least.

还只是“至少”。

Because I'm leaving so much out of this.

因为我舍去了很多。

But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.

但是我只是想分享我在那艘船上听到的好消息。

I didn't know what to do.

我不知道该做些什么。

I was trying to help them out.

我只是想帮帮它们。

But there's more good news.

但是还有更多的好消息。

Would you like to hear it?

你们想听吗？

Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa, in the Congo Basin, they do the same thing.

它们在陆地上的远亲，非洲刚果盆地森林里的大象，也在做同样的事。

Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop, they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests between seven and 14 percent.

它们走路、进食、排泄的方式，也在增加树木中、森林里的碳捕获量，增加了7%至14%。

Just imagine, just by frolicking around, they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.

想象一下，它们只是在四处玩耍，就能帮我们从大气中捕获二氧化碳，解决这个问题。

So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.

所以我在想，也许我们也能为它们的行为估个价。

Right?

对吧？

Same thing.

一个道理。

But again, use the same model of valuation.

但是使用同样的估值模型。

You follow the same methodology.

使用同样的方法，

And you discount all of that to the present.

折现得出此时此刻的价值。

And you ask yourself, what is the value of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?

你问问自己，一头大象的固碳行为值多少钱？

Would you like to know how much?

你们想知道值多少吗？

Here we go.

来吧。

2.6 million dollars.

260万美元。

Would you like to hear some more good news?

还想听点别的好消息吗？

Aside from forests, because we are land people, we just think of forests, go a little bit into the water.

除了森林，由于我们生活在陆地上，我们只会想到森林，我们再拓展一下，到水里去。

Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands, wetlands.

海草、盐沼红树林、海藻森林、泥炭地、湿地，

These are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide beyond your imagination.

它们都是以超出想象的水平吸收二氧化碳的生物系统，

And they keep it forever in their roots as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.

它们把碳永久地封存在根系中，只要你去关爱它们，不去干涉它们。

So...

所以……

If you think these numbers are big, wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.

如果你觉得数额不菲，那你得听听我接下来要说的话。

In seagrass alone, seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.

单看海草，仅仅是海草的固碳效果。

How much do you think is the value of the global?

你觉得全球的……

If you look at globally the seagrass and you value their carbon sequestration service, how much you think it's worth?

放眼全球的海草，评估一下它们固碳的价值，你觉得它们的贡献值多少钱？

You ready?

准备好了吗？

2.3 trillion dollars.

2.3万亿美元。

That's the size of the German stock market.

相当于德国股市的规模。

Now.

那么……

What does this tell us?

这意味着什么呢？

This tells us that a living and thriving nature is not only valuable intrinsically, it's also financially valuable to us.

这意味着生机勃勃的大自然不仅对它自身价值连城，对我们来说也价值连城。

Question is, what do you do with this?

问题是，你该做些什么呢？

So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.

科学为我们展现了地球之美。

We can value it in dollars and cents.

我们可以用金钱来衡量。

Question is, what are you going to do with it?

问题是，然后你该干什么呢？

Well, guess what?

你猜怎么着？

We can build a whole economy around a living and thriving nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

我们可以围绕这生机勃勃的大自然建立一个完整的经济体系，不是向自然索取，而是帮助自然焕发生机。

And that economy...

这个经济体系……

Thank you.

谢谢。

That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.

这个经济体系将为我们，为地球万物，无论大小，带来可持续的共同繁荣。

It does not have to be I win, you lose.

这不必是一场零和博弈。

It is a win-win.

这该是双赢。

I'm going to show you how.

我来告诉你们怎么做。

From there we can build...

我们可以建设一个……

In order to build that economy, we need three things.

要建立这个经济体系，我们需要三样东西。

We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.

我们需要科学，指的是会计，严谨的会计工作。

What is it that you have?

你有什么东西？

How much of it do you have?

你持有多少？

Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say: What is the value of what you have?

然后第二步就是像我这样的金融经济学家过来说道：“你持有的值多少钱？”

The reason we value it is just to basically translate it into the language that policymakers can understand so they can make decisions.

我们之所以要估价只是为了把它翻译成政策制定者可以理解的语言，然后他们才能做出决定。

That's all.

就是如此。

It's a translation.

只是“翻译”而已。

But then the third pillar is very important, which is the legal framing.

第三个关键部分也非常重要，即法律体系。

The legal framing is very important because we need to protect the rights of nature, a living and thriving nature.

法律体系非常重要，因为我们需要保护大自然的权利，我们生机勃勃的大自然。

Three things.

三样东西。

Once you do these three things, you can create markets around nature.

三样都有了，你就可以创造许多围绕大自然的市场。

When I say markets around nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

我指的“围绕大自然的市场”，不是向自然界索取，而是帮助大自然焕发新生。

And I'm going to show you how.

我要告诉你如何做到这点。

I'm going to show you how.

我要告诉你如何做到这点。

Gabon has 57,000 elephants.

加蓬有57000头大象。

If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.

如果不加以干涉，可以繁衍至195000头大象。

Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.

加蓬可以出售大象的碳补偿价值。

Imagine, because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees.

想象一下，由于这些大象会从树中吸收碳，

They can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.

加蓬就可以出售这个过程的价值。

To whom?

卖给谁呢？

To us because we're all enamored with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

卖给我们，因为我们都执着于达成零碳、负碳排放、碳中和。

And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.

我们的钱能让大象得以世世代代繁衍生息。

OK?

好吗？

So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?

那加蓬能赚多少钱呢？

One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely, not be tied to anything, just by leaving them alone.

加蓬每年能赚到10亿美元，需要做的只是让大象自由活动，不对大象加以任何限制，不作任何干涉。

Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop, just being, having babies, doing whatever they do, they help carbon sequestration in the forests.

而这些大象只要进食、排泄、生活、繁殖、为所欲为，就能完成森林里的固碳过程。

A forest without animals is dead.

没有动物的森林是死气沉沉的。

It's not about flora.

不只是植物，

It's about flora and fauna.

而是植物与动物。

It's about nature itself.

是大自然自身。

That's what the message is.

我要传达的信息就是如此。

Who would buy these carbon offsets?

谁会购买这些碳补偿价值呢？

All these companies and countries that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

所有承诺达成零碳、负碳排放、碳中和的公司、国家都会购买。

They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.

它们会购买这些碳补偿价值，或者说碳信用。

The money would flow in from these ecosystem services.

资金会流入这些生态系统运作的过程，

Be it the whales, be it the elephants,

给予鲸鱼、大象、

be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh.

红树林、海草、盐沼……

And the money goes in by contract, using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity, very important,

由合同规范资金的流入，利用区块链技术永久地照顾大自然，这点非常重要，

and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.

也能永久地照顾大自然的“管理员”。

And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.

大自然的管理员是当地的土著人。

They're the ones who are doing the conservation,

他们才是真正进行保护工作的人，

not you and me.

不是你，也不是我。

Once we do that, notice what it is.

我们一旦这么做，看看效果吧。

It's a win for nature.

对大自然有利。

It's a win for the economy.

对经济有利。

The government will make money because the government is going to get all that revenue.

政府能赚到钱，因为这些收入都归了政府。

It will change its fiscal stance.

这会改变财政态势。

It will diversify its economy.

让经济更加多元，

It will grow in a sustainable way.

更可持续地增长。

It's a win for the environment.

对环境有利。

It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.

对所有饱受我们折磨的生物有利。

It’s a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.

对我们美丽的地球有利。

As Carl Sagan once said:

卡尔·萨根曾说：

The only Earth we’ll ever know.

“我们唯一的地球，

The only home we'll ever know.

也是我们唯一的家园。”

It's a win for us.

对我们自己有利。

We are taking this work in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.

我们把这项在非洲进行的工作带去了利比里亚、喀麦隆、肯尼亚、南非。

We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.

我们把这项工作带去了美洲、智利、阿根廷。

We're doing it in the US and in the UK.

我们也在美国、英国进行这项工作。

Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.

想象一下，一切始于我想看到蓝鲸的那个愿望。

Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision of how we ought to live for tomorrow.

我未曾想到这会孕育出对未来生存方式的畅想。

Thank you.

谢谢。

每天观看TED演讲，收获良多：

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